Osun State is heading toward one of Nigeria’s most closely watched governorship contests, with the August 2026 election pitting incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke, popularly known as the Dancing Governor, against a resurgent political machine built around former governor Gboyega Oyetola.

Oyetola, now Nigeria’s Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, is not on the ballot himself. The All Progressives Congress has fielded Munirudeen Oyebamiji, known widely as AMBO, but Oyetola remains the force shaping the party’s strategy.

That strategy leans heavily on federal muscle. Oyetola’s close ties to President Bola Tinubu have brought a National Campaign Council stacked with governors and federal lawmakers into Osun, treating the state as a priority target for reclaiming the South-west.

Adeleke enters the contest weakened on the party front. His defection from the Peoples Democratic Party to the Accord Party fractured the coalition that carried him to victory in 2022, turning the race into a three-way contest with the APC and the ADC.

That fragmentation could work against him, splitting votes that once moved together. The APC’s advantage extends to local government, where legal battles over council control have repeatedly favoured the party.