The US Treasury Yield (far end, the 30Yr) touched its highest level since 2007 last month. The 30Yr Treasury yield reached a high of 5.28 per cent on July 31, 2026, the highest level seen since July 2007. The 20Yr Yield rose to a high of 5.3 per cent in July, its highest since 2023. Yields across other tenors (2Yr, 5Yr and 10Yr) also breached their respective highs made in 2025.
Indeed, the Treasury Yields have been on the rise ever since the US-Iran war started. Prior to this rise, yields had come down at the beginning of this year. Here we look at why the yields were falling at the beginning of the year and what are the factors that triggered a reversal and took it higher to the current levels. In the second part, we analyse where the yields are headed from here using technical analysis and what it would mean for other assets. For reference, we consider the 10Yr Treasury yield all through this article.
Rate-cut prospects
The US 10Yr Yield, which had closed at around 4.16 per cent in December 2025, rose to a high of 4.3 per cent in early February. From there, it fell sharply to a make a low of 3.93 per cent on March 2, 2026.
The US Federal Reserve had projected for a 50 basis points (bps) interest rate cut in 2026. The Fed in December 2025 reduced the interest rate by 25 bps to 3.5-3.75 per cent. In its economic projections released at that time, the Central bank had kept the doors open for another 50-bps cut in 2026. This was a major factor that was weighing on the US Yields at the beginning of this year.
