Global Markets · Bonds
Key Facts
—The 30-year US Treasury yield reached 5.189% Tuesday. That marks the highest level since July 2007 — nearly 19 years. Some intraday reports placed the yield as high as 5.2%. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield rose to 4.687%, its highest since January 2025.
—The driver is sticky inflation from the Iran war oil shock. The April Consumer Price Index hit 3.8%, the highest in three years. The wholesale prices index reached 6% last month. Iran-war energy costs are reigniting inflation across the US economy.
—62% of global fund managers expect 30-year yields to reach 6%. A Bank of America survey of 60 global fund managers published Tuesday found the consensus expectation moving toward 6% — a level last seen in late 1999. Only 20% target a 4% yield. Barclays warned the 30-year could push past 5.5%, a level not seen since 2004.
