President Donald Trump told CNBC on April 21 that he expected the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 to fall roughly 20% because of the US conflict with Iran. In subsequent remarks, he ratcheted the forecast even higher, floating potential declines of 25% to 30%.
What Trump said, and what actually happened
The Iran conflict ignited on February 28, when joint US-Israeli airstrikes killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. What followed was a cascade of retaliatory missile strikes from Tehran and a scramble across global markets to price in the possibility of a prolonged Middle Eastern war.
The S&P 500 did sell off, dropping about 8% from its pre-conflict levels and hitting a low of 6,343.72 in late March. By mid-2026, the index had clawed its way back to record highs. The Dow followed a similar trajectory, bouncing off its March lows and recovering to pre-war territory faster than most analysts anticipated.
Oil told a different story
