South Africa’s small, medium and micro enterprises face double jeopardy, yet public discussion remains focused on interest rates. The first jeopardy lies outside our borders. The second lies within them. Until both are addressed, “export-led growth” will remain a slogan rather than a real economic strategy.The road out is brokenExporting has become expensive and unpredictable. Container rates to key markets are high. Payment terms can stretch to 60 to 90 days. Delays at key border posts such as Beitbridge are regularly reported and can disrupt production schedules. For a large firm, such disruption represents margin pressure. For an SMME, it can mean closure.Banks are reluctant to fund orders where logistics and payment risk are high. Without finance, exports cannot proceed. South Africa has trade agreements, but it does not yet have consistently bankable routes.Trade deals do not move goods. Trucks, ports, and customers who pay on time do. Business groups have told parliament that fixing existing trade routes should take priority over opening new ones.The money at home is too dearThe local problem compounds the challenge. As of July 24 the repo rate was at 7%, with prime at 10.5%. Electricity, diesel and packaging costs have risen sharply in recent years. To export, firms buy inputs today and receive payment months later. That creates months of expensive debt.A single port disruption or sharp rand swing can wipe out a small business. As a result, SMMEs stay local. But the local market alone will not grow them at the required scale, nor will it close the trade deficit. That is the trap. Exporting is unaffordable. Not exporting is also unaffordable.Policy is adding risk with no rewardPolicy design is part of the problem. SMMEs are asked to carry significant risk: global shipping risk, foreign exchange risk and the risk of long payment cycles. They are asked to do so at a time when the cost of capital is high. Few banks will lend against that risk profile.The outcome is predictable. SMME participation in exports remains low, while import penetration continues to pressure local firms. Firms that do try often do not try twice. Years have been spent talking about “industrialisation” and “export-led growth”, but the enabling infrastructure has not been built. Industrialisation cannot happen on an overdraft. Exports cannot happen without predictable systems.What is required are fewer routes delivered properly, and capital that does not punish firms for trying. Market access is not the only constraint. Bankability is.More trade deals will not fix this The default response is another free trade agreement, another workshop or another export guide. That approach resembles handing someone a map when the bridge is out. What is required are fewer routes delivered properly, and capital that does not punish firms for trying. Market access is not the only constraint. Bankability is.Three steps could work. First, select three routes and make them work. Not 30, three. Choose routes with demand where logistics can be improved within 24 months. Examples include Southern African Development Community food, EU agro, and one manufacturing corridor. Bring Transnet, the South African Revenue Service, banks and logistics firms together. Reduce delays. Reduce costs. Publish the risks. When a route is predictable, banks are more likely to lend against it. The goal is not to pick winners. The goal is to pick roads and pave them.Second, create demand at home first. An SMME needs cash flow before considering London or Dubai. State-owned enterprises and large companies must buy local through real purchase orders, not only commitments. The steel sector has called for binding local procurement targets. Other sectors require similar certainty. Twelve months of local orders gives a firm a balance sheet a bank can assess. Scale comes before exports, not after.Third, make export finance fit for purpose. Monetary policy sets the cost of money, but not its structure. Borrowing to wait months for payment will remain difficult at current rates. An SMME export finance facility is needed, with concessionary terms tied to real orders on anchor routes. Support is also needed on input costs: fuel, packaging and electricity. Aggregating SMME buying power would smooth spikes. A single cost shock should not wipe out a year’s work.The choice is simpleGlobal trade remains volatile. Local costs are not falling quickly. Continuing with workshops and new trade deals will likely produce the same result: limited SMME exporting, a persistent deficit and fewer jobs.An alternative exists. Anchor SMMEs at home. Make three routes work. Back that with finance that makes sense. This is not a bailout, it represents an investment in productive capacity. SMMEs need a buyer they can trust, a route they can trust, and capital they can afford. Fix the anchor first. Only then can the conversation turn to the world.• Maseko is an independent political economy analyst and researcher.