Citi has bumped its third-quarter 2026 Brent crude forecast from $75 to $80 per barrel, a $5 upward revision driven by a US-Iran conflict that has dragged on longer than the bank’s analysts originally expected. The war is now five months old, and repeated attempts at a deal have failed to restore normal oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that roughly 20% of global seaborne crude and LNG exports pass through daily.
From $110 fears to an $80 reality
The current $80 forecast is actually a dramatic cooldown from where things stood earlier this year. During peak tensions around the Hormuz blockade, Citi’s base-case estimate for Q2 2026 had climbed as high as $110 per barrel. Bull-case scenarios floated the possibility of $150 per barrel if disruptions persisted through mid-2026.
An understanding reached between the US and Iran in June aimed to de-escalate the situation, which brought forecasts back down. Prices have still occasionally traded above $90 per barrel during peak tension moments in 2026.
Citi left its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent forecast unchanged at $70 per barrel, and its average projection for 2027 sits at $65.
