Two of the world’s largest economies are playing tug-of-war with the global copper supply. Stockpiles on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have cratered 82% since early May, falling to roughly 69,000 tonnes by late July, the lowest level in about two and a half years.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the Pacific, COMEX inventories in the US have ballooned past 650,000 tonnes, a record, surging more than 40% year-to-date. The metal hasn’t disappeared. It’s just moved.
A tale of two stockpiles
London Metal Exchange stocks have dropped 28% over the same period that COMEX warehouses have been filling up. US buyers have been stockpiling ahead of potential tariffs on refined copper imports, creating a dynamic where American importers are pulling metal westward while Chinese buyers scramble to secure what’s left everywhere else.
In China, the domestic spot premium climbed to 435 yuan, roughly $61 per tonne, by mid-July, the highest it has been since May 2025. The Yangshan import premium hit $103 per tonne during the same window.
