American consumers are feeling marginally less panicky about near-term price increases, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations. The July 2026 edition, released this week, showed the median one-year inflation forecast slipping 0.1 percentage points to 3.6%. After June’s sharp uptick had raised some eyebrows, the new reading amounts to a collective shrug from roughly 1,300 surveyed household heads.
The longer-term picture barely budged at all. Three-year inflation expectations held at 3.3%, while the five-year outlook stayed anchored at 3.0%.
A reversal of June’s spike
Context matters here. The June survey had shown one-year expectations climbing 0.2 percentage points to 3.7%, with three-year expectations also rising 0.2 percentage points to reach 3.3%.
Household financial perceptions actually improved in both the current assessment and year-ahead expectations.
