Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin is pointing to corporate earnings as one of the brighter signals in an economy that keeps defying the pessimists. Profits are growing, companies are spending, and consumers haven’t pulled back. The question Barkin is now focused on: whether all that boardroom confidence actually flows downhill into the job market.
What Barkin is seeing
In a speech on February 3, 2026, Barkin stated plainly that “corporate earnings remain strong.” He had been flagging this trend for months, noting as far back as November 2025 that credit-card data and corporate earnings both pointed to healthy economic growth.
The data backs him up. Third-quarter results for 2025 came in solid, and early indicators from 2026 have continued that trajectory.
Barkin isn’t just reading earnings reports from his desk in Richmond, either. He has conducted nearly 75 conversations with company leaders in early 2026, probing their demand outlook and hiring plans.
