Friday’s jobs report for July showed the economy losing 23,000 jobs and the unemployment rate edging down to 4.1%. The headline numbers were mixed news, overall.But a look at the details of the Bureau of Labor Statistics data and the trend over recent months can reveal the truth about the health of the economy under President Donald Trump.
The underlying reality
Job numbers can bounce around from month to month. That is why it is important to look at the trend over multiple months.With downward revisions to the numbers for May and June, the three-month moving average of job gains was 20,000 in July. That is a major deceleration, which is bad news. But it is still more than enough to keep up with population growth and to keep unemployment trending down.
Only a few thousand jobs each month are needed, thanks in large part to Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration. Because fewer migrants are coming into the country looking for work, fewer people need and are taking jobs.Conversely, employment rates are high, showing the underlying strength of the labor market. Prime-age employment, meaning for those between the ages of 25 and 54, has held near all-time highs. It rose in July.
No signs of a recession
