As Russian President Vladimir Putin grows increasingly isolated domestically and internationally amid the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, there is renewed speculation over who might one day succeed him and what that this would mean for Russia. “For the first time since the conflict began, Russians are starting to imagine a future without Putin,” Britain’s Economist reported in May.
The prospect of new Russian leadership provokes mixed reactions. While few serious commentators would deny that Putin is a dangerous tyrant, many still caution that his replacement could be even worse.
This “better the devil you know” argument rests on the idea that a post-Putin Russia could become less predictable and might be more likely to escalate against the West. However, past experience and current practicalities suggest that the next Russian ruler may be forced to seek a less hostile path.
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