The US labor market is refusing to cooperate with anyone hoping for cheaper money. Initial jobless claims came in at 199,000 for the week ending August 1, according to Labor Department data released August 6, marking the third consecutive week that claims have held below the 200,000 threshold.
That number is not just low. It is historically low. The four-week moving average has now fallen to its weakest level since September 2022, a period when the Fed was still in the early stages of its most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in decades.
What the numbers actually mean
The week ending July 18 produced an even more striking reading of 187,000 claims, one of the weakest figures recorded in recent decades.
For context, economists and Fed watchers have long treated the 200,000 mark as a rough dividing line between a cooling labor market and a resilient one. Three consecutive weeks below it, capped by a four-week moving average at a multi-year low, signals a jobs market that is not slowing down on its own.
