Heavy to very heavy rain is forecast for Kerala as well as parts of East India and North-West India as monsoon prepares to enter the second week of August, normally the second rainiest month.
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Kerala is set for another spell of intense monsoon weather, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warning of heavy to very heavy rain over the south-western state, as well as Coastal Karnataka and South Interior Karnataka, during the next two to three days.The IMD said isolated very heavy rainfall will continue over Kerala, Mahe, Coastal Karnataka and South Interior Karnataka on Friday. Heavy rain is forecast over Lakshadweep, North Interior Karnataka and Tamil Nadu-Puducherry-Karaikal on Friday; Kerala and South Interior Karnataka on Saturday; and Coastal Karnataka through Saturday and Sunday.Strong surface windsAdding to the weather threat will be strong surface winds expected to lash Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Mahe, Lakshadweep, Rayalaseema and Telangana for the next two days, while North and South Interior Karnataka could experience gusty conditions for up to three days.The renewed bout of wet weather is being shaped by an unusual interaction between the monsoon and a cluster of tropical systems over the West Pacific. Typhoon Dolphin and tropical storm Kujira weakened, but made way for storm Chan-Hom, all of which continue to draw a substantial share of monsoon moisture eastward.Track of projected ‘low’Much of the monsoon flow is currently being pulled towards these Pacific systems across the Bay of Bengal, while another branch is feeding into North-East and East India through the Myanmar-Bangladesh corridor. The evolving pattern could help trigger the formation of a fresh low-pressure area over the Bay, a development that would help re-anchor monsoon currents and sustain rainfall.Two upper-air cyclonic circulations are already in place - one each over the north-west Bay and adjoining north Odisha-Gangetic West Bengal, and another over south-west Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh. The eventual track of any ‘low’ that forms here will determine how rainfall is distributed across East and North-East India.North-West, Central IndiaBeyond the south, the IMD expects isolated heavy rainfall to persist across parts of North-West, Central, East and North-East India through much of the week, as the monsoon moves into the first week of August, traditionally the second rainiest month of the four-month rainy season.On Wednesday, the western end of the monsoon trough remained north of its normal, indicating a temporary weakening of the monsoon over North-West India, while its eastern end stayed close to normal. A western disturbance stretching along Sri Ganganagar in Rajasthan to Kurukshetra in Haryana, with cyclonic circulations over south-west and south-east Uttar Pradesh, steering the monsoon current around the region.Published on August 6, 2026
