Prediction-market traders cut the odds that the CLARITY Act becomes law this year after Senate Majority Leader John Thune declined to file cloture on the motion to proceed to the crypto market structure bill on Tuesday night and instead filed cloture Wednesday morning on a college sports bill and the nomination of Todd Blanche.
Kalshi's contract on a crypto market structure bill becoming law before Jan. 1, 2027 last traded at 22 cents, down from a previous price of 30 cents. On Polymarket, the "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?" market priced Yes at 15.5 cents, down 8.5 points on the day, 12 points on the week and 32.5 points over the past month. That market has traded $4.76 million in total volume, including $896,780 in the prior 24 hours, according to data last updated at 12:06 p.m. ET Wednesday.
Money moved down the calendar rather than out of the series. Kalshi's contract on enactment before Sept. 1, 2026 fell to 2 cents from 4 cents, with roughly 962,000 contracts of open interest. The before-July 2027 contract slipped to 43 cents from 49 cents. But the before-October 2027 contract rose to 58 cents from 55 cents, and the before-January 2028 contract rose to 65 cents from 64 cents.
