Some players experienced misfortune last season, while others were statistically “lucky.” Let’s construct lineups featuring 2025 outliers who are due for regression this year, both positively and negatively. It’s the same concept as buy-low and sell-high candidates, with the law of averages on our side.Team positive regression Tyler Shough (NO), QB Shough was fantasy’s QB8 in dropbacks per start as a rookie; Head coach Kellen Moore is a cheat code for fantasy production, ranking first in no-huddle rate. Shough ranked fourth among QBs in designed rushing yards and third in expected rushing touchdowns (3.9) over his nine starts (Weeks 9-18) despite suffering a significant hip/spleen-area hematoma in Week 15 that curtailed his running over the final three games.Shough is due for TD% regression (as is the entire Saints offense) while seeing more end-zone attempts, as his 3.1% ranked 35th out of 36 qualified quarterbacks. He gets 10 home games with one of the league’s easiest schedules this season. New Orleans also added WR Jordyn Tyson as a top-10 overall draft pick and sports a potentially strong offensive line. Shough is the QB20 in the expert consensus ranks, but he’s a dark horse to finish among the top 12.Ashton Jeanty (LV), RBJeanty was a fantasy disappointment during his rookie campaign, but it wasn’t his fault. He saw the fewest yards before contact among all qualified backs while playing for one of the league’s worst offenses of the past decade. He showed plenty of ability on plays in which he wasn’t hit behind the line of scrimmage, which was an NFL-low 51.5% of his attempts.Jeanty owned the league’s highest share of backfield carries inside the 10-yard line (94.1%), but the Raiders scored an NFL-low 20.0% of their offensive touchdowns via rushing; Las Vegas became just the 12th team over the past decade to score at least 80% of its TDs through the air, with regression always following the previous times. Jeanty was the RB17, but he was the RB8 in expected fantasy points per game.Moreover, Jeanty scored a league-low 30.3% of his fantasy points while playing with a lead. He saw 18.6 opportunities during losses last season but 26.3 during Raiders’ wins; Las Vegas played just 140 snaps with the lead last year, when a whopping 48.6% of Jeanty’s fantasy points came via receiving production.The Raiders still have question marks, but the offense enters 2026 with major upgrades to the offensive line and coaching (and potentially quarterback). Kolton Miller’s return at left tackle and the addition of center Tyler Linderbaum will be massive. Going from Las Vegas’ previous coaching staff to Klint Kubiak looks like an immeasurable gain; Kubiak offenses have recently led to significant boosts in yards before contact and bring a ton of rushing TD upside.Jeanty’s fortunes should change greatly in 2026.Emeka Egbuka (TB), WR Egbuka was fantasy’s WR3 through the first five weeks of his rookie season before suffering a hamstring injury that he tried to play through. Moreover, Baker Mayfield hurt his oblique in Week 7 and was fighting multiple injuries throughout 2025. Egbuka saw his catchable target rate plummet from Week 7 on, finishing the year with easily the most uncatchable air yards. Egbuka also had the second-lowest end-zone conversion rate. He finished as the WR30, but he was the WR19 in expected fantasy points per game.