Traders and bankers are set to see big bonus increases this year, significantly outpacing other sectors in finance, per a new report out Wednesday morning.Why it matters: A booming stock market, the AI investment surge and a pickup in deal-making are turning 2026 into "the year of the bank," finds the analysis from compensation consulting firm Johnson Associates.You can chalk it up to the resilience of the U.S. economy, the firm's president Alan Johnson tells Axios.Zoom in: Bankers working in equity sales and trading are projected to see bonuses rise between 20-30% or more, the biggest increases in the finance industry, according to the projections.Advisory bankers, including M&A dealmakers, could see increases of 15%-20%.Overall bonuses in investment and commercial banking are projected to rise 10-15%+. Friction point: There's a catch. Typically with business booming, you'd see a surge in hiring. AI is changing things."Usually people hire when things are really good, and they're not really doing that," Johnson says. AI and technology are a big part of it, he says. It hasn't led to layoffs, thanks to the surge in business this year. But, firms "don't need to hire."How it works: The projections are based on first-half financials at 20 traditional asset management firms and 15 major investment and commercial banks, as well as the firm's conversations with clients in the industry.Zoom out: Even with a war and rising bond yields, deal-making and trading raged on in the first half of the year. "There hasn't been an event to slow things down," Johnson says.The roller-coaster of volatility in the market — witness the recent rise and fall and rise in chip stocks — is also driving more trading.By the numbers: Investment banking fees overall rose 46%, to $12.9 billion in the second quarter, compared with the quarter a year ago, according to a separate analysis of fees at the five big U.S. banks published by S&P Global Market Intelligence Tuesday.Equity underwriting fees rose an astonishing 87% from last year at Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America and Citigroup.The other side: Those working in the private markets are lagging behind: Bonuses are projected to be flat for those in real estate and at small private equity firms and venture capital outlets.At private credit companies — having a notoriously rough year — bonus growth is projected to be flat to negative 10%.Private markets have led the pack for more than a decade. The reversal this year is a "seismic change," Johnson says. The bottom line: Bonuses are up, but the vibes might be less bubbly as AI roils finance.