The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has marginally bumped up real GDP growth projection for FY27 to 6.7 per cent from earlier estimate of 6.6 per cent. It slightly revised lower the CPI inflation for FY27 to 5.0 per cent from earlier estimate of 5.1 per cent.Real GDP growth for Q1:2027-28 is projected at 7.3 per cent. Inflation for Q1:2027-28 is projected at 5.3 per cent with risks being evenly balanced.RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra noted that the Indian economy has remained resilient amidst persisting global headwinds. High frequency indicators available so far point towards steady domestic demand in Q1:2026-27.Further, private consumption remained robust. Investment continues to be resilient, as suggested by various indicators related to construction, capital goods and bank credit. External demand also sustained, as healthy expansion in services exports was complemented by a rebound in merchandise exports.“Looking ahead, the turbulent global economic environment is likely to have some bearing on domestic economic activity. Energy prices and supply chain pressures remain elevated and uncertain. The adverse impact is being contained with various supply side measures.“Even though the situation is still evolving, deficient and uneven south-west monsoon amidst El Niño conditions poses some risks to agriculture sector’s outlook and rural demand. Nevertheless, government’s initiatives pertaining to crop diversification including short duration as well as climate-resilient crops, and water harvesting and conservation, among others, are expected to mitigate the impact,” he said.Furthermore, sustained momentum in services, continuing impact of GST rationalisation, and broadly stable employment conditions should continue to support urban demand.The Governor emphasised that strong capacity utilisation, robust credit flow and the government’s continued thrust on infrastructure are expected to sustain investment activity. While services exports are expected to sustain, merchandise exports will be supported by the recent trade agreements and thrust on diversification, he added.Malhotra said going forward, El Niño’s impact on temporal and spatial rainfall distribution continues to remain a risk, although proactive supply management and adequate stocks of foodgrains could provide buffers.“Global oil prices have remained volatile with sharp two-way movements triggered by geopolitical developments, blurring the near-term outlook. Although generalised inflation pressures continue to remain modest so far, the risks of higher food, fuel and other input prices translating into a broad-based increase in inflation persist,” he said.More Like ThisPublished on August 5, 2026