From Crimea to St. Petersburg, Ukraine’s escalating drone strike campaign is making headlines and encouraging many commentators to argue that the tide is turning in Kyiv’s favor. But while these attacks are unquestionably impacting the overall dynamics of the war, there is little sign that Russian President Vladimir Putin is any closer to ending his invasion. On the contrary, he appears more determined than ever to fight on.
With neither country able to secure any meaningful battlefield breakthroughs so far this year, the most significant development of 2026 has been the dramatic expansion of Ukraine’s drone war. The Ukrainian strategy has focused on two key areas: Long-range attacks reaching deep inside Russia, and mid-range strikes targeting Russian logistics behind the front lines of the invasion.
Ukraine’s long-range bombing campaign has increased dramatically since the start of 2026, with a record number of attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. According to Bloomberg, Russian refineries, oil tankers, and energy export sites were hit on at least thirty occasions during July, representing the second highest monthly total since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion more than four years ago. These attacks have sparked the biggest Russian fuel crisis since the Soviet collapse.
