Ukraine‘s long-range drone campaign targeting Russia‘s energy infrastructure has delivered Kyiv some of its first tangible victories in years, but Russian resilience and adaptation have prevented it from being a true game changer.Western and Ukrainian strategists have long viewed Russia’s oil industry as the key driver of its war machine, and likewise its Achilles’ heel. With U.S. and Western intelligence support, Ukraine dramatically escalated its drone and missile campaign in 2025, a sustained campaign that has extended into 2026. Its most dramatic attack occurred last week, when hundreds of drones overwhelmed Moscow’s air defenses and hit refineries and storage tanks, sending up black plumes of smoke that darkened the sky.
The shocking images of flames and smoke rising above Moscow, combined with constant news and images of new strikes for nearly a year, have sparked hopes among allies that the war has reached a turning point in Ukraine’s favor. However, experts caution the situation isn’t so simple, and while Ukraine has inflicted tangible damage, Russian resilience and logistical limitations mean the campaign has yet to pass into decisive territory.In this image taken from a video released by Gov. Veniamin Kondratyev’s Telegram channel, Kondratyev, 2nd right, inspects the aftermath of a drone attack on the oil refinery and terminal in Tuapse, Russia, on Wednesday, April 29, 2026. (Gov. Veniamin Kondratyev Telegram channel via AP, File)
