Ahead of the SpaceX earnings today - its first as a public company - we said that investor focus is increasingly shifting beyond the quarter itself, and while revenue and EBITDA performance will matter, the August 6 lockup expiration appears likely to be the bigger near-term driver, opening the door to the first meaningful wave of insider selling just days after results.On the call, management is expected to spend considerable time on AI-related initiatives. Investors will be looking for updates on data center buildouts, potential increases to compute targets and any incremental commentary around Grok deployment timelines. Stronger-than-expected AI revenue could represent one of the more credible upside catalysts.Beyond AI, attention will also center on Starlink and Starship. An updated Starlink subscriber figure could be disclosed, although the market may be hesitant to place significant weight on the metric while the network remains largely supported by V2 Mini satellites. For Starship, investors are likely to focus on execution milestones, launch cadence and any signals around the path toward operational payload launches.Lastly, positioning remains an important factor. As we warned earlier, and as Musk amplified, there is a huge retail short overhang.I try to warn them, but they just double down … 🤷♂️
SpaceX Slides Despite Big Revenue Beat, Tame CapEx
Solid quarter but much of the upside was already pretraded in today's session...
SpaceX beat Q2 earnings at $7.8B; AI revenue surged 3.5x to $2.6B YoY while consuming 86% of $18.4B capex buildout. Stock declined on lockup risk; $14.1B cloud services contracts and Starlink subs doubled signal SpaceX as credible infrastructure challenger, influencing enterprise AI stack decisions.










