For up to $100,000 a month, investment banks, hedge funds and algorithmic trading firms can now buy access to President Trump’s Truth Social posts milliseconds before they are made public. The premise is that Trump’s posts move markets so much that getting access to these posts mere milliseconds earlier is enough to gain an edge in the market – the elusive alpha that hedge funds are so obsessed with.
Critics are labeling it a blatant violation of insider information laws. Without going into the legality of the offering, I want to challenge Trump’s claim about the actual value of early access to his posts.
We found no evidence of any systematic trading strategy that could deliver a profit
Given Trump’s continuous impact on markets, I decided to run an experiment. I asked our quant team at Oraclum Capital, an options-trading hedge fund I co-founded, to run the President’s Truth Social posts against market reactions to see if there are any meaningful signals that could be derived from them. We ran the analysis last year, so we only focused on Truths from 2025. We selected posts based on keywords relating to policy and market-related triggers – such as tariffs and his post-tariff negotiations with China and many other countries – rather than rants, trolling or pictures of himself as Jesus.
