Tuesday’s Michigan Democratic Senate primary pitting progressive Abdul el Sayed against Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) is one of the most important races in the country as a referendum on the socialist takeover of the Democratic Party.If el Sayed wins, it will test whether a left-wing candidate can win in a battleground state. Most polls have el Sayed virtually tied with Republican Mike Rogers, who barely lost to the less radical Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) in 2024 while President Donald Trump was atop the GOP ticket and winning statewide.
“He’s fighting for the same things that a lot of our candidates are also going to be fighting for, and so that’s why we’re out knocking doors,” Detroit DSA co-Chairwoman Lila Brickner told Politico, referring to el Sayed.The primary results will also test whether el Sayed can win over black and working-class Michiganders, with serious implications for November.Just last month, Stevens looked like she may have had a real shot at beating el Sayed, which began a stampede of Democratic elected officials toward her campaign, including Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI). Stevens was flush with cash and hugged former President Barack Obama tightly. Obama has not endorsed in the race, but you could be forgiven for thinking otherwise.A Stevens upset would raise questions about the quality of the Michigan polls that have given el Sayed an aura of inevitability in the homestretch. She’s down by 10.2 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average and hasn’t led in a public poll since early last month.If instead Stevens loses, it will continue the marginalization of pro-Israel voices in the Democratic Party and embolden progressives who would like to see the American Israel Public Affairs Committee become irrelevant in the primary process.A Stevens defeat would also raise questions about the relevance of the elected Democrats who continued to campaign for her even as her poll numbers began to look grim, including Whitmer, who defeated el Sayed in the 2018 gubernatorial primary. It would be the latest example of progressives ignoring the Democratic establishment’s electability judgments after losing to Trump in two of the last three presidential elections. Rank-and-file Democrats are angry at their leaders in an anti-establishment, anti-incumbent mood that has been compared to the tea party on the Right more than 15 years ago.El Sayed would be a risky general election candidate, though there are questions about whether Stevens would be able to turn out progressives in November — a problem that helped cost former Vice President Kamala Harris Michigan in 2024 — after such a contentious primary. He actually trails Rogers by 0.3 points in the RealClearPolitics average and could jeopardize Democratic control of the Senate by putting one of the party’s seats in play.Democrats are competitive in Senate races in a slew of other Trump-won states because they have nominated candidates who either are or are pretending to be relatively centrist in spite of the socialist wave.But this is also a midterm election in which the party holding the White House usually loses seats. El Sayed has tried to position himself as more “America First” than Trump, whose job approval ratings are low, emphasizing the economy and opposing the unpopular war in Iran. If you had to pick a year to be a Democratic nominee in a swing state, this would be the one.Socialists have had some success running on affordability before, as evidenced by New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who has begun experimenting with government-run grocery stores to keep prices down.At the same time, massive government spending fueled record inflation under former President Joe Biden. That and his concessions to the border erasure recommended in the DSA platform, triggering a vast influx of illegal immigration, led directly to Trump’s return to the White House after a four-year hiatus.EL SAYED STAYS AHEAD OF STEVENS IN FINAL WEEK OF MICHIGAN PRIMARY, BUT UNDECIDED VOTERS OUTSIZE HIS LEADEl Sayed winning the primary would also be another warning sign for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). He was not Schumer’s preferred candidate, and el Sayed has made plain he would like to see Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) replace the New Yorker as the chamber’s top Democrat.Both parties have a lot riding on how Michigan Democrats vote on Tuesday.
