SpaceX has a scheduling problem that is really a strategy. As it launches ever more of its own Starlink satellites, the company is crowding rivals off the very rockets those rivals depend on.
The squeeze is visible in the manifest. Starlink’s share of Falcon 9 missions has climbed from 54% in 2020 to roughly 79% this year, leaving less and less room for anyone else.
At least seven spacecraft companies have been told Falcon 9 is fully booked until 2028 or 2029, a delay that can be fatal for a startup with hardware built and no way to orbit.
The conflict is structural. SpaceX is both the dominant launch provider and, through Starlink, a competitor to many of the satellite firms queuing for its rockets, and Starlink is where the money is.
The maths favours Starlink every time. The network brought in $11.4bn in 2025, around 60% of SpaceX’s revenue, against $4.1bn from the launch business, so a seat handed to an outside payload is profit forgone.
