"Markets have a remarkable ability to bankrupt investors who are fundamentally right," The Market Ear wrote this week about Leopold Aschenbrenner.Aschenbrenner may still be right about AI. His fund, Situational Awareness, returned over 400% betting on that thesis. Then July's AI rout cut his portfolio 67% in a single month, and the leverage that powered the run (as much as 4x!) forced him to sell his entire public book to Ken Griffin's Citadel to raise capital after banks started pressuring the fund about its margin. "We came closer to permanent capital impairment than is acceptable to us," he told investors. The fund is still up roughly 80% on the year. Directionally right, but narrowly avoided a blow-up due to the use of leverage.Being right and executing a thesis are different skills. There were countless social networks before Facebook, and countless attempts at digital cash before bitcoin. The graveyard is full of “correct” predictions of market needs. Bitcoiners relearn this every cycle: leverage lets you do more with the asset, but it isn't free. It converts a drawdown you could have ignored into a margin call you can't. Markets don't care how right you are, and prioritizing survival over return maximization can pay off in the long run.Risk showed its other face this week, too: technology risk. An attacker swept 594 bitcoin — about $38 million — from roughly 500 COLDCARD wallets in 25 minutes, exploiting a five-year-old firmware flaw that quietly generated “impossible to guess” seeds from a serial number and a clock. The Bitcoin Network has never been hacked. The tools around it can be.Pierre Rochard wrote that "the utility of a monetary system is an inverse function of the uncertainty experienced by its users." The protocol minimizes uncertainty better than any monetary system in history. Everything bolted onto it — leverage, firmware, custodians — adds some back. You can't eliminate risk. You can only locate it, size it, and refuse to bet the whole stack on it.Stay smart, and safe out there!NEWSMetaplanet's "modest bolt-on" might be a bond market in embryoBenchmark told clients the market badly undersells Metaplanet's ¥2.1 billion (~$13 million) acquisition of Siiibo Securities, which hands Japan's third-largest bitcoin treasury, consisting of 43,000 bitcoins, a Type-1 license to structure and distribute securities. Director of Bitcoin Strategy Dylan LeClair says the brokerage will anchor “Bitbonds” – bitcoin-backed bonds yielding 4% to 6%, eventually moved on-chain – so that any company adopting a bitcoin treasury can issue debt through Metaplanet's platform.WebX 2026: Shinpei Okuno, Metaplanet's Executive Officer, Capital Markets & IR, discusses the Digital Credit roadmap.