The matchup between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens headlines the last big election night before November.Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed are Democratic Senate candidates in Michigan. Getty Images Aug. 4, 2026, 6:00 AM EDTWelcome to The Data Dive, your subscriber-exclusive newsletter on the most consequential elections of the midterms. Each Tuesday morning, I’ll focus on the numbers, trends and data shaping the biggest stories heading into Election Day. I’ll also dig into the 2026 battlegrounds that will determine control of Congress — one district, one county, one city and maybe even one precinct at a time. In this edition, I’m zeroing in on the crucial Democratic primary for Senate in must-win Michigan. Let’s dive in.What I’m watchingJust a moment.We are getting your experience ready.