Australia will struggle to reach its renewable energy target of 82 per cent by 2030, a new report has warned, if current investment and development pipeline challenges persist and if significant downgrades to wind energy forecasts are to be believed.
In its Australia Energy Transition Outlook 2H 2026, published on Monday, BNEF captures the messy middle of Australia’s energy transition, including a new record in large-scale solar investment, big swings in the outlook for wind, and a home battery market that has smashed all expectations.
While Australia’s coal exports are up 3 per cent and emissions reductions are making “limited progress” towards international and national targets, investment in solar and wind increased 341 per cent in the first half of 2026 from the same period a year earlier, albeit from a small base, buoyed by federal Labor’s Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS).
But BNEF says that despite strong federal and state support for renewables through programs like the CIS, and the Long-Term Energy Service Agreements (LTESA) in New South Wales, it does not expect Australia to reach its 82 per cent target by 2030.
“Challenges persist, especially in the states of New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland,” the report says, even despite a buoyant large-scale solar markety and the fact these three states are projected to account for the “lion’s share” of new solar capacity by 2035.
