Monday marks exactly three months until the midterm elections. There are still several outstanding primaries that will be pivotal in not only determining control of both chambers of Congress but also shaping the direction of the Democratic and Republican parties. The remaining primary calendar is headlined by the Democratic Senate primary in Michigan, where on Tuesday, leftist Abdul el Sayed appears to be the front-runner against Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI), despite millions in outside support and backing for Stevens. Most of the intrigue in the primaries to come is on the Democratic side, as Republicans have sorted out most of the major races left on the calendar. Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN), who, after redistricting, faced a primary challenger from former state agriculture commissioner Charlie Hatcher, could be in a competitive race, but he’s expected to win. A Hatcher-aligned group released a poll last week showing the controversial Ogles leading by just 4 points in the primary.
In Alaska, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) will appear on the ballot alongside former Rep. Mary Peltola and spoiler candidate Dan Sullivan, but the top-four candidates, regardless of party, advance to the general election in Alaska, meaning catastrophe would need to occur for the senator to miss the general election. Consequential primaries can be roughly sorted into three categories: races that feature competitive general elections; races in which older Democratic candidates may lose; and races where socialist candidates could defeat the establishment.
