Tuesday is the first moment of truth for the 2026 midterm elections. It’s the day the first polls will close to kick off a seven-month stretch of primaries that will help shape who will win the House and Senate on Election Day, Nov. 3.
While Democrats are favored to win the House and Republicans seem likely to keep the Senate, much will depend on the results of the primaries leading up to the big day. Here are five early races taking place Tuesday that will indicate how the rest of the election could go:
Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican, is attempting to keep his seat in a heated primary against two challengers: State Attorney General Ken Paxton and Texas Rep. Wesley Hunt, who represents a Houston-area district.
Despite Senate Republicans and establishment donors pouring tens of millions into the race for Cornyn, most polls show Paxton as the frontrunner. His track record opposing President Joe Biden and backing President Donald Trump has made him a favorite of the MAGA crowd, with an endorsement from Turning Point USA, the influential group founded by Charlie Kirk.
Yet a Paxton victory in the primary means Republicans would likely need to sink additional millions into the state to win in November. Paxton is scandal plagued. He’s in the middle of an acrimonious divorce, was impeached by the Texas House over corruption allegations and was charged with securities fraud.
