Four and a half years into Russia’s war in Ukraine, and despite wave after wave of Western sanctions packages, much has been made of the fact that the war has not had much impact on the bulk of Russians. Well unless you are a family member of some of the one million plus Russian dead and injured. But even there, casualties have been predominantly from Russia’s prior bloated prison population or communities on the periphery of the Federation – and disproportionately from Muslim populations in Southern Russia, or central Asian guest workers contracted to fight.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. The death toll has been limited in the politically sensitive cities of Moscow and St Petersburg, which have always figured prominently in revolutions in Russia. Political change happens in Moscow and St Petersburg, so they have been largely insulated from this war to date – actually they may have even benefited from high wages in the war economy. But all that might be about to change. First, the meat grinder in Ukraine now seems to be creating more Russian casualties than Moscow can recruit through the contract route. Likely monthly deaths are now up and above 35,000. To still man the front lines means difficult decisions will need to be taken in Moscow. Mobilisation might become necessary, which means the citizens of Moscow and St Petersburg will finally see their sons, fathers and uncles heading to certain death.