An insider from Iran has issued a warning to Gulf states and Israel, suggesting that they could become targets if Iran’s civilian infrastructure faces attacks. This development comes amid the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, which has already seen strikes on energy infrastructure in Iran and several Gulf states. Recent threats from Iran indicate a potential escalation, suggesting that the conflict may expand beyond military targets to include critical economic infrastructure.
This situation appears to be influencing prediction markets related to a potential US-Iran deal in 2026. The current geopolitical tensions and threats of broader retaliation are consistent with a decrease in the likelihood of a US-Iran deal that includes reconstruction funding. Markets seem to interpret the heightened tensions as detrimental to the prospects of reaching a diplomatic agreement this year.
Market odds for the inclusion of Iran reconstruction funding in a US-Iran deal have decreased slightly, with recent data showing a drop from 30% to 29% for the possibility of such terms being included. The potential for further escalation in the region could continue to impact these odds, as threats against Gulf states and Israel add uncertainty to the prospects of diplomatic progress.
