Ghana, the world's second-largest cocoa producer, expects its cocoa production to fall by at least 16% in the 2026/2027 season, raising concerns over global cocoa supplies and the potential for higher chocolate prices.
The forecast was released by the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD), the state agency responsible for regulating the country's cocoa industry, supporting farmers and marketing cocoa exports.
Weather, disease and illegal mining weigh on cocoa output
According to Reuters, COCOBOD said the projected decline reflects "the likelihood of El Niño conditions, excessive rain in May and June this year, and the physiological bearing pattern of the cocoa tree, which tends to alternate between higher- and lower-yield years."
The output reduction is particularly acute in Ghana's Western and Western North regions, which historically account for more than half of national production, due to three compounding threats.
