Bitcoin has lost roughly half its value since peaking above $126K last October. In any other era of crypto, that sentence would be the warm-up act before a much uglier number.
But here’s the thing: a 49% drawdown is historically gentle by Bitcoin standards. The current bear market, now about eight months old, is shaping up to be the shallowest structural decline in the asset’s history, and analysts say it still hasn’t found its floor.
A bear market that looks nothing like its predecessors
With Bitcoin trading around $60K as of mid-to-late July 2026, the peak-to-trough decline sits at approximately 49-51%. The 2022 bear market carved out a 78% decline. The 2018 version was even worse at 84%.
The cycle kicked off after Bitcoin hit its all-time high above $126,200 in October 2025. Eight months later, we’re sitting at roughly the halfway mark of what previous bear markets have delivered in terms of pain. Most forecasters expect the bottom to materialize somewhere in Q3 or Q4 of 2026.
