The recent crisis in the Middle East will inevitably change the region’s future. The United States and its allies will not be coming out of it unscathed. Iran, for its part, will need years to recover and, under certain conditions, to get back on its feet. If, what’s more, ways are found to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and thus diminish its importance to the global economy and energy market, then Tehran will sink into an economic crisis, which sooner or later will undermine the prospects of the existing regime’s survival. Already over the last two weeks, the strikes by the Americans have become more targeted, aiming to undermine the Iranian leadership’s ability to successfully counterattack, fund the war and, effectively, run the country.
The US strikes against energy production infrastructure, transportation networks and ports are proof that the American side is no longer focused on Iran’s ballistic and nuclear program (which is considered partially inactive), as much as on multiplying the cost of the war and wearing down the Revolutionary Guard. The ultimate objective seems to be making it almost impossible for the current leadership to continue governing the country.
Seeking redemption, Trump might pursue a diplomatic victory in the Eastern Mediterranean that would be easier to pull off than in Ukraine, given that the parties involved are allies and thus more ‘manageable’
