The conflict in Ukraine, now in its fifth year, appears to be nearing a decisive stage. On one side, there is growing talk of a negotiated settlement; on the other, fears are mounting that the fighting could spiral into a direct confrontation between Russia and Ukraine's European backers.
President Donald Trump, who hoped to leverage his rapport with Russian President Vladimir Putin to achieve a quick peace deal, appears to have given up on his quest. Instead, the US President has fallen in line with European leaders and promised to grant licence to Ukraine to manufacture critical air defence missiles.
Trump’s apparent change of heart has come at a time when Ukraine, unable to make headway on the battlefield, is trying to damage Russia’s economy and logistics through aerial attacks.
Ukraine’s recent air campaign, using long-range drones and missiles to hit Moscow’s energy infrastructure deep inside Russian territory has had a significant effect on the country’s oil refining capability, triggering widespread fuel shortages.
Ukraine has also ramped up attacks on routes that supply Russia-occupied Crimean peninsula with fuel and other essentials, creating the impression of a “siege from the sky”.
