The quest for ultra-low cost solar is now far more dependent on cheaper construction methods and system integration rather than reductions in the price of cells and modules, according to a new report from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency.
The report provides an update on Arena’s 30-30-30 vision: to achieve 30 per cent module efficiency and 30 cents per watt (W) installed cost by 2030, and solar electricity below $20 per megawatt-hour. It comes three years after that vision was outlined in the Incredible ULCS – Ultra Low Cost Solar White Paper.
Solar has gone from strength to strength, dominating global energy markets to deliver a record 664 gigawatts (GW) of new generation capacity installed across the world in 2025 – a tripling of global PV capacity in just four years.
Technology has improved, too, with universities and some of China’s major manufacturers constantly chipping away at cell and panel efficiency rates and seeking out cheaper and more abundant materials to replace some of the key ingredients for making cells and panels.
Arena says cell efficiencies are now approaching 30 per cent in laboratory settings, with commercial module efficiencies continuing to improve into the mid-20 per cent range, supported by bifacial module designs and ongoing improvements in cell architecture.
