By hitting the Iranian cargo ship Ana in the Caspian Sea on Saturday, killing one crewman, Ukraine is deliberately seeking to connect its war with Russia with the USA’s against Iran. The fear is that this could even spill over into Europe – with consequences we cannot predict.
Moscow and Tehran have a long and complex relationship. Both regard themselves as under threat from a hostile West, but at the same time have distinctly different interests. Indeed, the Kremlin has considered Iran also to be a rival for influence in the Middle East and the South Caucasus.
When Russia bogged down in Ukraine in 2022, it turned to Iran to buy drones and missiles. Russia soon developed them further, and fed its experiences and upgrades back to Tehran, as well as the battlefield experience of co-ordinated drone and missile attacks that could penetrate advanced, Western-built air defences.
Shorts
In January 2025, Vladimir Putin and the Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, signed a 20-year strategic partnership. Longer on rhetoric than firm commitments, it didn’t include an agreement on mutual defence. Ironically enough, this was at Tehran’s request – something it may regret.
