Strong June IIP growth and healthy corporate earnings have lifted sentiment, though investors remain cautious ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s policy decision and ongoing West Asia tensions that continue to support crude oil prices.
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Gift Nifty at 24,260 signals that Indian stock markets are likely to open on a positive note on Wednesday amid stable Asian markets. Analysts expect the market to remain positive on the back of value buying, following healthy quarterly results from India Inc and strong IIP numbers. The focus will also be on the US Fed meeting outcome, which began yesterday. Most experts believe that the US Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at 3.50 per cent to 3.75 per cent.Despite the positive opening cues, underlying sentiment is expected to remain cautious as geopolitical tensions in the West Asia continue to dominate investor focus, said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.“Fresh strikes by U.S. and Saudi forces on Iran-linked militant sites in Iraq, alongside reports of Iranian missile strikes on U.S. military bases, have intensified geopolitical tensions and revived concerns over energy supply disruptions. As a result, WTI crude oil has surged back to around $82 per barrel after briefly falling to near $78, reflecting a renewed geopolitical risk premium as markets closely track developments in the Middle East,” he added.Strong domestic macro data offers supportMeanwhile, India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) grew by 7.3 per cent YoY in June 2026, accelerating from a revised 5.0 per cent in May, supported by strong growth in manufacturing and the electricity and gas supply sector.Shashwat Singh, Fundamental Analyst, Bajaj Broking, said, “India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) accelerated to 7.3% year-on-year in June 2026, significantly higher than both the 5.0% growth recorded in the previous month and the market expectation of 5.6%. The sharp uptick reflects broad-based strength in industrial activity, supported by improving manufacturing output, resilient domestic demand, and sustained momentum in investment-led sectors. The stronger-than-expected reading indicates that industrial growth gained traction at the end of the quarter despite ongoing global uncertainties.Derivatives signal a cautious undertoneFrom the Derivatives perspective, India VIX eased further to 12.44, reflecting subdued volatility and a lack of aggressive directional positioning.Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities, said: Option chain data shows maximum Put Open Interest concentrated at the 24,000 strike, followed by 23,950, indicating strong support around current levels. Meanwhile, maximum Call Open Interest is concentrated at the 24,200 strike, followed by 24,500, highlighting a strong overhead supply zone where Call writers continue to defend higher strikes. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stands at 0.93, suggesting a balanced-to-cautious derivatives setup.“Overall, the market continues to remain in a wait-and-watch phase. A buy-on-dips strategy remains favourable as long as the index holds above the 23,950-23,900 support zone, while a decisive move above 24,130 would confirm the Morning Star reversal and could pave the way for a move towards 24,275-24,500. Conversely, a break below 23,900 would negate the recovery attempt and revive selling pressure,” he said.Published on July 29, 2026
