Derivatives data and technical indicators continue to suggest a constructive outlook, with analysts expecting support around 24,040-24,140 and resistance near 24,530.
Indian stock markets are likely to open on a positive note on the final day of July, amid positive global market sentiment despite lingering geopolitical uncertainty. Gift Nifty is trading around 24,450, signalling a gap-up opening of about 100 points.Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said: “Indian equity markets are poised for a steady start, extending their recent recovery, as a sharp rally on Wall Street and a broad rebound across Asian markets improve global risk sentiment.”Stronger-than-expected guidance from Microsoft reignited investor optimism toward technology stocks, fuelling renewed buying across the sector and providing a supportive backdrop for global equities. GIFT Nifty futures are hovering around the 24,400 mark, compared with the Nifty’s previous close of 24,317, indicating a positive opening for domestic markets.Data showing Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) turning net buyers of domestic equities, with purchases exceeding ₹3,600 crore in the previous session despite an uncertain geopolitical backdrop, is expected to provide an additional boost to investor sentiment and reinforce confidence in the resilience of Indian markets, he said.Meanwhile, Asian equities are trading firmly higher, led by a powerful rebound in South Korean markets, where the Kospi has surged more than 15% as upbeat corporate earnings revived confidence in the artificial intelligence theme and triggered renewed buying in semiconductor stocks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 has also advanced more than 5%, reinforcing the improvement in regional risk appetite. “While the recovery in global technology stocks is expected to lend near-term support to Indian equities, investors are likely to remain watchful of geopolitical developments and their potential impact on energy prices and overall market sentiment,” he further said.Geopolitical tensions and crude oil remain key risks“Geopolitical risks remain elevated as tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, with the United States and Iran exchanging fresh strikes, underscoring the expanding nature of the conflict. Tehran’s latest warning that the U.S. will “pay the price” for its actions has reinforced concerns that the standoff is unlikely to ease in the near term, keeping investors focused on the potential for further escalation and its implications for global markets.Energy markets remain a key area of concern. Crude oil prices have surged more than 20% over the past month—one of the strongest rallies in recent years—as the U.S.-Iran conflict continues to heighten concerns over global energy supplies and key shipping routes. WTI crude is currently trading near $84 per barrel. For India, persistently elevated oil prices remain the most significant external risk, given their potential to widen the import bill, pressure the rupee and complicate the inflation outlook, even as broader market sentiment improves,” Ponmudi said.Derivatives and technical indicators stay supportiveFrom the Derivatives perspective, India VIX edged marginally higher to 12.16, though it remains near lower levels, suggesting volatility remains well contained despite the recent rally. “Option chain positioning also reflects strengthening bullish conviction, with maximum Put Open Interest concentrated at the 24,000 strike, followed by 24,200, indicating aggressive Put writing and a strengthening support base at lower levels. Meanwhile, maximum Call Open Interest is concentrated at the 24,600 strike, followed by 24,500, highlighting the immediate resistance zone where Call writers are actively defending higher strikes. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stands at 1.29, reflecting a constructive Derivatives setup and signalling that Put writers continue to maintain a strong presence,” said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities.From last Friday’s low of 23,606, the index has rallied 737 points and remains firmly above the 20, 50 and 100-day EMAs, underscoring a strong uptrend, said Nandish Shah, Deputy Vice President, HDFC Securities. A sustained move above 24,368 could open the path toward the next resistance at 24,530, while the 24,040–24,140 band is expected to act as support on declines, he added.Published on July 31, 2026
