The Nasdaq 100 is flashing warning signals: a bearish double top formation has emerged below the 50-day moving average, driven by growing skepticism that the AI investment bonanza will actually pay off.

The technical picture is getting ugly

On July 7, the Nasdaq dropped 1.16% while the S&P 500 slipped 0.45%. The PHLX semiconductor index dropped 4.65% on the same day, despite positive earnings from Samsung.

On June 23, a broader tech selloff dragged the Nasdaq down 2.2% and the S&P 500 by 1.43%. The catalyst was rising AI infrastructure costs and questions about when those costs translate into real revenue.

The concentration problem no one wants to talk about