El Nino, which has been in place since mid-June, continues to strengthen, with further intensification likely in the coming months, according to the Southern Hemisphere monitoring report from the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (BoM)The warming in the central tropical Pacific is indicative of a strong to very strong El Nino event. Most models indicate that this event is likely to reach levels among the highest observed since 1950 or above, the report said.The latest relative Nino3.4 index value for the week ending 26 July 2026 is +1.94°C, well above the El Nino threshold (+0.80°C) and warming by 0.5°C over the past fortnight.IOD OutlookThe current status of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The weekly IOD index is +0.44°C as of July 26, warming by about 0.5°C over the last fortnight.This is the first week the index has crossed the positive IOD threshold (+0.4°C), with sustained values above this threshold required before an event is considered established.Models suggest a positive IOD could form during the Southern Hemisphere winter and last into spring, though the timing and strength of the potential event still show some variation.Strong eventModels predict that the tropical Pacific will continue warming through the Southern Hemisphere spring (November) and will probably reach a maximum in late spring or summer (February).The strength of this El Nino, along with its usual life cycle, suggests that the current one could last through the autumn of 2027.Trade winds are reversed or weaker than normal across the western tropical Pacific, with cloudiness enhanced near the International Date Line and suppressed over the Maritime Continent, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains strongly negative, with the latest 30-day SOI to 26 July at -28.0, the report added.Warming oceansSea Surface Temperature (SST) analysis for the week ending July 26 indicates above-average waters over much of Australia and near-average to the north-east. Waters are particularly warm along the coasts of New South Wales and eastern Tasmania, where they are up to about 2 to 3°C above average. We should see this overall SST pattern continue over the coming months.More broadly, global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been well above average, with June 2026 global SSTs being 0.51 °C above the 1991–2020 average, making it the warmest June on record (since 1900).The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index is in negative territory. It is expected to remain negative at least until early August, with a considerable spread in the forecast beyond this time.Published on July 28, 2026