Though we are suffering from the worst of the heat this summer, perhaps we need to be looking more urgently at the implications of the demographic winter now clearly upon us in the UK.
It requires a rapid rethink of immigration policy in the short and long term. We need to start now.
Net migration measured year on year to December 2025 fell roughly 50 per cent according to latest revised figures. Those arriving by illegal routes were at about 44,000 in the year to March 2026, and the numbers of those arriving by small boat (which is most of them) are on track to be lower this calendar year.
Illegal immigration still figures high in the list of political grievances in most opinion polls – in May it was the country’s top priority, according to Ipsos. Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, has promised tougher rules and vigilance – which has burnished her credentials with the public and her new boss, Andy Burnham.
Two initiatives have caught the eye. She has promised a new immigration appeals authority and also wants to make it harder for migrants to invoke Article 8 of the European Court of Human Rights. She is also suggesting the probationary period for care workers to be considered for permanent residence to be extended from five years, to 10 or even 15 years.
