For weeks now, President Donald Trump has been repeating a single date with unusual consistency: Sept. 24. That is when, he insists, Chinese President Xi Jinping will walk into the White House for the first state visit by a Chinese leader to the United States in more than a decade.The machinery of diplomacy is visibly turning to make it happen. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations foreign ministers’ gathering in Manila last week, working to “identify areas of cooperation” and set the stage for what Rubio called a “very positive visit.” Deputy-level officials are reportedly shuttling between the capitals to iron out logistics.On paper, then, this looks less like a maybe and more like a matter of scheduling. But anyone who has watched U.S.-China summitry over the past decade knows that “on paper” and “on the tarmac” are two very different things. Three live issues could still derail, delay, or hollow out Xi’s trip before Sept. 24 arrives: Taiwan, trade sanctions, and the state of American domestic politics.
Taiwan: The card Trump hasn’t played
Trump holds a piece of leverage he has so far kept in his pocket: a new Taiwan arms sale. Such sales are treated by Beijing as one of the most serious affronts to its sovereignty claims, and a poorly timed announcement has derailed diplomatic momentum before. What’s notable right now is the relative quiet — Chinese military flights near Taiwan appear to have eased somewhat in recent months, a pattern consistent with Beijing wanting to avoid giving Washington any pretext to escalate before the summit.That restraint cuts both ways: it suggests China badly wants this visit to happen, but it also means the temperature could spike quickly if Trump decides an arms package serves his negotiating position better than a smooth summit. Taiwan remains the single most volatile variable in the run-up to September — the kind of issue that can turn a “confirmed” visit into a “postponed” one with a single announcement.Trade: a truce sitting on top of new sanctions risk
