Russia's war against Ukraine has entered its tenth phase, according to Austrian military analyst Markus Reisner—or, to use his boxing analogy, the tenth round of an exhausting fight. The larger and ostensibly stronger Russian opponent is trying to force Ukraine into a clinch, dragging it into a conventional war of attrition where Moscow can capitalize on its greater resources. Ukraine, by contrast, succeeds when it keeps its distance, fights unconventionally, and strikes where the enemy least expects it.
In Reisner's assessment, the strategic initiative currently belongs to Ukraine. It has weathered a difficult winter, disrupted Russia's plans for a large-scale summer offensive, and intensified strikes against Russian logistics, energy infrastructure, and strategic targets deep inside Russia. At the same time, however, Ukraine's missile defense remains its greatest vulnerability, making the months leading up to winter potentially decisive.
In a conversation with Ukrinform, Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces, Head of the Institute for Officer Training at the Theresian Military Academy, discussed the current phase of the war, the battle for the strategic initiative, the growing role of drones and long-range strikes, the prospects for Russia's offensive campaign, and the conditions under which Moscow could be compelled to agree to a ceasefire.
