Hitting EU targets for heat pumps, solar and wind could slash gas demand by roughly a quarter by 2030 — a saving twice the size of the LNG volumes Qatar could potentially supply to Europe by then, according to new analysis by the think-tank Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).
Boosting the continent’s resilience by mitigating energy supply risks is of strategic importance as escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruption to energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz affect the EU.
For Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst for Europe at IEEFA, relying on “uncertain” and “expensive” deliveries of LNG (liquefied natural gas) from countries like Qatar is not a secure plan for the EU.
LNG supplies to Europe from Qatar and other Gulf producers rely on a patchwork of long-term bilateral contracts, which experts warn carry a double risk: locking Europe into decades of fossil-fuel use despite falling gas demand, while providing less supply and price certainty than promised, as buyers remain exposed to volatile global markets and uncertain long-term demand for the gas they have committed to purchase.
“The Strait of Hormuz crisis shows why Europe can’t afford to continue betting on imported fossil fuels,” said Makarewicz.
