Some episodes from the last couple of decades show the trade-offs involved when the Federal Reserve surprises markets.
Markets price a one-third chance of a Fed rate hike this week; the question is whether Chair Kevin Warsh surprises markets, breaking Powell's telegraph-ahead playbook. Reduced Fed predictability raises capital-cost uncertainty for tech fundraising, valuations, and M&A—reshaping financial decision timing.
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Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios
The Federal Reserve typically telegraphs its interest rate moves in advance, then follows through. This week will provide the clearest evidence yet on whether chairman Kevin Warsh is ending the era of the no-surprises Fed.
The big picture: Markets are now putting meaningful odds on the Fed delivering an interest rate hike at the conclusion of its two-day meeting this week.
Warsh's rate decision is a cliffhanger. These trades might offer a clue
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US Federal Reserve’s direction of travel on interest rates has rarely been this opaque
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The minutes of the June meeting give little visibility into whether the Fed will feel compelled to raise interest rates in the…
His testimony comes as some Fed officials debate whether there's a need for higher interest rates.
Fed chairman Kevin Warsh's reaction function — the way he is likely to respond to incoming information about the economy — is a…
The Federal Reserve's interest rate forecasts, known as the dot plot, might be removed. This change could signal a shift in…
The first FOMC minutes of the Kevin Warsh era are released Wednesday and could contain clues about what comes next for interest…
It's arguably the most up-for-grabs Federal Reserve decision in recent memory.
