SummaryTrump pauses strikes: Trump said the US paused attacks to give diplomacy a chance but warned military action will resume if talks fail.Iran denies that it pushed for talks: Tehran denied any direct negotiations with Washington, while saying its response remains "attack for attack."Saudi Aramco targeted: Houthis claimed fresh strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities, with reports of fires at the critical Abqaiq oil processing complex.Fragile pause holds two days: The US-Iran military pause entered a second day as mediators continued backchannel efforts to revive negotiations.Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
Yes 13% · No 88%View full market & trade on Polymarket * * *Trump Cites 'Deep Talks' - Warns of Expanded Action; Houthis Claim Responsibility for New Aramco AttacksPresident Trump has told Axios on Monday that he decided to pause American military attacks on Iran in order to give negotiations another chance, despite there currently being no evidence that Tehran has been urgently requesting them. Trump warned in the comments that war could immediately return with expanded strikes if diplomacy fails.But it seems there's at least some indirect 'note passing' between capitals going on, even as Saudi Aramco facilities have apparently come under drone assault from Iran-aligned militants in Yemen and Iraq. Axios writes that "The talks are being conducted mainly between Iran and Oman. But Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt and Trump's envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, are actively involved.""We are in very deep talks with Iran. If they don't work out, we will go back to very strong military action," Trump said in an interview. Again, very deep talks?... The Iranian side is certainly not confirming this, but instead quite the opposite. Tehran has definitively stated its position that there are no talks currently happening. It seems it is merely the mediating powers that are most urgently trying to get the sides back to the negotiating table. Trump said he won't give diplomacy "much time" and that it "either goes fast or not at all.""All of the people that deal with Iran asked me: 'Don't fire,'" he also said, perhaps alluding to reports like the following:The top U.S. military commander in the Middle East recommended ending the bombing campaign around the Strait of Hormuz after concluding it reached the limits of its effectiveness, a recommendation that helped shape President Donald Trump's decision to pause strikes against Iran, Axios reported Sunday.Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command, advised Pentagon leaders, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the White House last week that two weeks of sustained airstrikes had weakened Iran's ability to threaten commercial shipping through the strategic waterway, multiple sources familiar with the discussions said.As for new reported strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities (below), and particularly the sprawling Abqaiq site, the Houthis are claiming responsibility.The last time Abqaiq (in 2019) was attacked by drones, Brent prices rose 20%.
