Reading Time: 4 minutesLIMA—This year El Niño, potentially the worst ever recorded, will be a challenge all over Latin America. But it will pose special risk to two right-wing presidents who won by narrow margins, and they take office just as the phenomenon begins to bite.
Near the city of Paita, in northern Peru, water temperatures were already a stunning 14.2 degrees Fahrenheit above average in June. Peru’s climate agencies expect this year’s El Niño to be especially strong from November to next March, foreseeing flooding in the north, drought in the south, and disruptive heat on the coast.
In Colombia, a country where hydropower supplies more than two-thirds of electricity generation, forecasters predict droughts that will deplete reservoirs and threaten the electrical system. This raises the specter of rationing and blackouts, like the rolling outages that rocked Ecuador in 2024.
These challenges will greet new governments in both countries. Keiko Fujimori takes office on July 28, and Abelardo De La Espriella does so on August 7. If most El Niño models are correct, the two presidents’ first six months in office are likely to see intense climate events. How they prepare for and react to these disruptions could define their political fortunes over the coming year, especially given their narrow margins of victory.
