In Focus delivers deeper coverage of the political, cultural, and ideological issues shaping America. Published daily by senior writers and experts, these in-depth pieces go beyond the headlines to give readers the full picture. You can find our full list of In Focus pieces here.President Donald Trump seems to want two incompatible things: unequivocal victory over Iran and avoiding even a marginal number of combat deaths. As regrettable as that choice is, he will need to soon face up to the fact that to achieve the former, he must incur the latter.The president started the war under the apparent belief that, with Israeli intelligence and assistance, the Iranian regime could be quickly toppled without significant American effort. The assassination of much of Iran’s military and clerical leadership on the war’s first day initially promised that desire could be fulfilled. But, predictably, the regime’s more brutal revolutionary elements gained the upper hand within Tehran. That group, led by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was never going to give up power or their longstanding dream of dominating the Middle East so easily.
Since then, the president has oscillated between war, bluster, and negotiation. Iran’s navy and air force have been mostly destroyed, and its other military capabilities have been massively degraded. Yet that has only pushed the Guard to up the ante by trying to cut off the world from the Middle East’s oil and gas.The Iranian position has been essentially the same no matter what levers Trump uses. They will not give up their nuclear material or their nuclear weapons program — which they deny having, to virtually no one’s belief. They will not forfeit their ability to disrupt shipping through the vital Strait of Hormuz, even continuing to insist they will charge tolls for the privilege of passing by. Iran has even frequently broken the purported ceasefire by attacking ships trying to pass the Strait on the side policed by Oman, a move that only makes sense if it believes America and Trump will back down rather than incur any significant casualties.It is to Trump’s credit that he has resumed the war rather than knuckle under to Iranian chutzpah. The problem is that air power has limits, as the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Daniel Caine, acknowledged recently. Air power can kill and destroy, but it cannot occupy territory. That, it seems, is what will be necessary to remove Iran’s threat to the Strait and, with that, remove their last serious leverage against Trump.Trump seems to be reconciling himself to that. He has said that he is thinking about authorizing a “massive attack” on Iran soon. That could mean simply an intensified version of the air war he has already been waging for months. Or it could mean ground troops will be sent in select strategic locations to force Iran’s hand.That won’t mean a full invasion of Iran on the scale of the two wars with Iraq. America does not have that level of ground forces in the region, nor does it appear likely that Saudi Arabia or Kuwait will allow those forces to be based in their territory. But the U.S. does not need that level of force to take the conflict to new heights.
