The US military has paused its airstrikes on Iran after nearly two weeks of intensified bombing, while diplomatic efforts have pushed forward to try to avert a return to all-out war.It remains to be seen whether the US and Iran are at an inflection point in a mercurial conflict that will reach the five-month point on Tuesday. President Donald Trump has threatened more strikes and said talks are pressing on, all while brushing off concerns that rising fuel prices tied to the fighting could hurt Republicans in November’s midterm elections.Adding to the uncertainty is the impact of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s planned visit with Trump next week in Washington. Israel, which launched the war alongside the US on February 28, has been notably absent from the renewed American attacks over Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping corridor through which 20% of the world’s oil normally flows.“If it turns into a multiday pause, that’ll be something significant. But it’s hard to know. Is it an operational pause? Is it a pause to allow for some kind of behind-the-scenes diplomacy?”— — Michael Singh, Managing Director, Washington Institute for Near East Policy“The Iranians understand that it could get worse because Israel could come into the conflict,” said Michael Singh, managing director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. On the other hand, Israel’s lack of involvement so far “may signal to the Iranians that we’re looking to limit the conflict”.Singh, who was senior Middle East director on the National Security Council during the George W. Bush administration, said he was hesitant to read too much into the lull in fighting.“If it turns into a multiday pause, that’ll be something significant,” he said. “But it’s hard to know. Is it an operational pause? Is it a pause to allow for some kind of behind-the-scenes diplomacy?”A regional official involved in the mediation efforts said concerted diplomacy was underway and that a pause in US strikes and Iranian counterstrikes on neighbouring countries hosting American forces was a “positive signal that helps their efforts to de-escalate”.“You can just keep doing exactly what we’re doing and take them apart piece by piece... Or we can negotiate with them, which we’re also doing right now.”— — President Donald TrumpIranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei confirmed on Sunday that Iran and Oman had held several rounds of technical talks on the strait over the weekend. He said the Omani delegation had left Tehran on Saturday, but negotiations were continuing and had made progress.Iran put a chokehold on the narrow Persian Gulf waterway when the war began by firing on tankers and freighters. In turn, oil prices have soared during the conflict, which has been unpopular with many Americans, and could leave some Republican lawmakers vulnerable in November. Among the challenges the US faces is the fractured leadership in Iran, with different factions vying for control, Singh said, something that Trump administration officials have also pointed to. The people in charge in Iran may worry that compromising with the US will be seen as weakness and could loosen their grip on power.Whatever the case, both the US and Iran need the strait to reopen for their own economic reasons.Despite the lull in fighting, tensions are high in the region.Yemen’s Houthi rebels said on Saturday that they fired missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia in response to Saudi airstrikes on the strategic Red Sea city of Hodeida. The Iran-backed rebels say they have closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which has become even more vital for Saudi oil exports since the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz.The US military is also enforcing its naval blockade of Iranian ports, saying it disabled a Mozambique-flagged ship in the Gulf of Oman on Friday after the vessel tried to violate the blockade and ignored warnings.Trump has kept up the threats against Iran even as he spotlighted diplomacy. Asked about his exit strategy on Friday, Trump said there are two ways. “You can just keep doing exactly what we’re doing and take them apart piece by piece. We could do it in a more rapid fashion, which we might do,” he told reporters in the Oval Office. “Or we can negotiate with them, which we’re also doing right now.”While Trump said he doesn’t think Iran is “ready yet” to make a deal, he also asserted that “I think they’re getting more and more serious as the days go by, for maybe the obvious reason.”Trump met on Friday with top national security aides to discuss the situation with Iran and whether the administration should maintain the current course or escalate military attacks, according to a US official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. No US strikes occurred overnight in Iran after 13 consecutive nights.