Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina revealed that policymakers discussed the option of holding interest rates unchanged at their latest meeting. The comment suggests the central bank is weighing whether its current easing cycle has moved fast enough, given persistent inflationary pressures tied to war spending and Western sanctions.
From 21% to here: the easing journey
The CBR pushed its key rate to a punishing 21% in late 2024 as inflation spiraled amid military expenditures and sanctions-driven supply constraints. On June 19, 2026, the CBR cut the key rate by 25 basis points, bringing it from 14.5% to 14.25%. That move was more modest than many market participants had hoped for.
Inflation in May 2026 came in at around 5.3%. Nabiullina has been clear that accelerated lending growth limits the room for deeper cuts. The fact that policymakers actively debated holding rates steady, rather than cutting further, tells you Nabiullina’s team sees real risk in moving too quickly.
The political pressure cooker
